Structural Reforms in DSGE Model
2021-02-08 13:36
WP 21/2/08
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 21/2/08
Structural Reforms in DSGE Model
Vahagn Davtyan, Haykaz Igityan
Monetary Policy Department February 2021
This paper develops a DSGE model for a small open economy dividing it into tradable and non-tradable sectors in order to evaluate the impact of structural reforms on the economy for developing countries. The model is constructed and solved in a way that the steady state level of each sector’s employment rate...
Housing Market Drivers and Dynamics in Armenia
2021-01-20 12:45
WP 21/1/08
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 21/1/08
Housing Market Drivers and Dynamics in Armenia
Haykaz Igityan, Hasmik Kartashyan Monetary Policy Department
January 2021
Abstract
This paper develops VAR model for Armenia with housing price and estimates the impact of housing price on GDP growth and inflation. Passthrough results show, that 1% increase in real housing price creates from 0.03 to 0.09% inflation and increases GDP by around 0.25% in the long run. Paper...
Modelling the Effects of a Health Shock on the Armenian Economy
2020-12-10 12:33
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 20/2/08
Modelling the Effects of a Health Shock on the Armenian Economy
Ani Asoyan, Vahagn Davtyan, Haykaz Igityan, Hasmik Kartashyan, Hovhannes Manukyan
December 2020
Abstract
This paper extends the closed economy DSGE model in order to evaluate the impact of the coronavirus on the economy. Our model makes it clear that people’s decisions to reduce consumption and working hours due to the health crisis lead to an economic...
Fitting Armenian data to the simple DSGE model with permanent productivity growth
2020-09-07 11:21
WP 20/1/08
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 20/1/08
Fitting Armenian data to the simple DSGEmodel with permanent productivity growth
Haykaz Igityan, Hovhannes Manukyan January 2020
Abstract
This paper discusses the evaluation of structural parameters and estimated potential economic growth of Armenia using different specifications of DSGE models. We extend the simple models so that they are consistent with a balanced steady state growth path driven by...
The long-term effectiveness of financial education classroom, workshops in rural areas, the case of Armenia
2020-08-21 13:53
The long-term effectiveness of financial education classroom Workshops in rural areas The case of Armenia
Executive summary
The Financial Education in Rural Areas (FERA) project, launched by the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) in December 2016 under the National Strategy for Financial Education (NSFE),1 aims to improve financial literacy in rural Armenia by promoting healthy financial behavior and responsible decision making.
To understand the effectiveness of classroom-based...
Key facts statements for credit: Do they work? The experience of Armenia
2020-08-21 13:42
Key facts statements for credit: Do they work? The experience of Armenia
Abstract
Rapidly developing digital credit products and aggressive credit sales have impelled financial authorities to help financial consumers make more informed and effective credit decisions. One of the tools many countries are using is Key Facts Statements (KFSs), which aim to improve financial decisions in the pre-contract stage of the credit process and to promote healthy competition among financial...
The financial competency matrix for adults
2020-08-21 13:33
The financial competency matrix for adults
A policy framework
Overview
This publication defines the core competencies every adult needs to make informed financial decisions. The Financial Competency Matrix for Adults provides a framework to support effective policymaking, monitoring and assessment. Applying the same definition of financial capability used by international organizations and academia, the competencies in the matrix are grouped into four key components (knowledge, skills,...
Exchange Rate Pass-through in Armenia
2019-10-31 11:26
WP/19/5/08
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 19/5/08
Exchange Rate Pass-through in Armenia
Stella Mnoyan October 2019
Abstract
In this paper, we develop a semi-structural macroeconomic model to estimate the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Armenia using Bayesian estimation. The pass-through both to import prices and core inflation is somewhat lower than the average results for comparable emerging economies reported in the...
Estimating Potential Output at the Central Bank of Armenia
2019-10-21 10:29
WP 19/4/08
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 19/4/08
Estimating Potential Output at the Central Bank of Armenia
Hayk Karapetyan October 2019
Abstract
Potential output and output gap are important concepts in many areas of economic policy. However they are unobservable and can only be measured with some...
Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in different phases of Armenia’s business cycle
2019-09-04 12:43
WP 19/3/08
Central Bank of Armenia Harvard University Working Paper 19/3/08
Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in different phases of Armenia’s business cycle
Haykaz Igityan Monetary Policy Department September 2019
Abstract
This paper develops empirical models and shows the presence of asymmetric responses of inflation and output in Armenia to the same size of positive and negative monetary policy shocks. Tight monetary policy yields more reduction in output...
Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis
2019-08-26 11:15
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 19/1/12
Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis
Ali Alichi, Hayk Avetisyan, Douglas Laxton, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Armen Nurbekyan, Lusine Torosyan, and Hou Wang August 2019
Abstract
This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures...
Do Remittances Worsen Export Diversification?
2019-08-26 11:06
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 19/2/12
Erik Vardanyan August 2019
Abstrac
The paper explores the impact of workers’ remittances on the level of export diversification. The hypothesis is that significant inflow of remittances causes overvaluation of real exchange rate, which in turn deteriorates diversity of export. The theoretical base is in line with the Dutch disease phenomenon. The paper uses annual cross-national panel data over 2000-2016 period and System GMM...
Export sophistication: A dynamic panel data approach
2019-06-21 13:18
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper No. 17/2
Export sophistication: A dynamic panel data approach
Evžen Kočenda and Karen Poghosyan November 2017
Abstract
In this paper we analyse export sophistication based on a large panel dataset (2001–2015; 101 countries) and using various estimation algorithms. Using Monte Carlo simulations we evaluate the bias properties of estimators and show that GMM-type estimators outperform instrumentalvariable and fixed-effects...
Cross-Country Wage Differentials
2018-02-22 10:56
WP 17/1/08
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 17/1/08
Cross-Country Wage Differentials
Hayk Karapetyan June 2017
Abstract
The main purpose of this article is to identify the major determinants of the wage level in the long run in the Armenian economy and assess the relative importance of these factors compared to other countries. We use annual macro-data for the period 1995-2014 for 55 developed and developing countries. Using econometric models for panel-data analysis...
Migration in the estimated new Keynsian DSGE model for Armenia and Russia
2016-09-20 07:22
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 16/2/08
Monetary Policy Department
Migration in the estimated new Keynsian DSGE model for Armenia and Russia
Haykaz Igityan September 2016
Abstract
This paper develops DSGE model for Armenia and Russia allowing the Armenian household to supply labor both domestically and abroad. Paper models migration cost arising in a reallocation process of labor, which is absent in a basic New Keynsian framework. Russian migration policy is also taken into...