Estimating Potential Output at the Central Bank of Armenia
WP 19/4/08
Central Bank of Armenia
Working Paper 19/4/08
Estimating Potential Output at the Central Bank of Armenia
Hayk Karapetyan
October 2019
Abstract
Potential output and output gap are important concepts in many areas of economic policy. However they are unobservable and can only be measured with some uncertainty.
The paper documents some estimation methods used at the Central Bank of Armenia, discusses some relevant criteria for evaluation of the methods and shows the relative performance of the models across a wide range of criteria.