Analytical materials

Publications
Analytical materials

Analytical materials

Measuring systemic risk and macroprudential policy impact in Armenian financial system: A growth-at-risk approach 2025-08-28 15:48

WP 2025/01 Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2025/01 Measuring systemic risk and macroprudential policy impact in Armenian financial system: A growth-at-risk approachVladimir YeghiazaryanArthur GrigoryanAshot Sargsyan August...

Inflation Target in Armenia 2024-10-22 11:33

Central Bank of Armenia Inflation Target in Armenia H. Avetisyan, H. Igityan, A. Papikyan October...

Inflation and Structural Reforms in Different Societies (Game Theory Approach) 2023-04-05 18:11

WP 2023/05 Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2023/02 Inflation and Structural Reforms in Different Societies (Game Theory Approach) Ani Asoyan Vahagn Grigoryan Haykaz Igityan March 2023 Abstract The combination of structural reforms and inflation differs across countries. There are many evidences which claim about a trade-off between reforms and inflation. While reforms have their effects in the long run and are costly for government, the latter can get...

Not the Fed Tealbook March 2023 2023-03-24 21:19

WP 2023/08 Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2023/08 Not the Fed Tealbook March 2023Angela Papikyan, Vahe Avagyan, and March 2023Abstract “Not the Fed Tealbook” simulates a state-of-the-art macroeconomic analysis and streamlined monetary policy note with limited resources. This provides a simple and accessible application of the Forecasting and Policy Analysis (FPAS) Mark II framework that incorporates uncertainty, nonlinearities, and Alan Greenspan’s 2004...

Not the Fed Tealbook January 2023 2023-02-05 17:03

WP 2023/02 Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2023/02 Not the Fed Tealbook January 2023∗ Abstract Authored by Participants of the Global Forecasting School: Angela Papikyan, VaheAvagyan, Hayk Avetisyan, Meline Gevorgyan, Edgar Hovhannisyan, Haykaz Igityan, MartinGalstyan, Julian Gilbert, Hayk Karapatan, Asya Kostanyan, Douglas Laxton, Jared Laxton,Anahit Matinyan, Armen Nurbekyan and Nerses...

FPAS Mark II Monetary Policy Relevant Output Gaps 2023-01-31 22:29

WP 2023/03 Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2023/03 FPAS Mark II Monetary Policy Relevant Output Gaps Vahe Avagyan, Hayk Avetisyan and Martin Galstyan January 31, 2023 Abstract This paper is the second in a series exploring ways of conducting current macroeconomic analysis using the MPMOD framework. The preceding paper in this series laid the groundwork for this approach, delving into the historical narrative of the US economy in the context of MPMOD and fleshed out...

FPAS Mark II: Better Work-Life Balance Issues 2023-01-31 10:44

WP 2023/01 Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2023/02 FPAS Mark II: Better Work-Life Balance Issuesby Vahe Avagyan, Hayk Avetisyan and Martin Galstyan January 31, 2023 Abstract The introduction of the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) Mark II, which introduces the idea of “monetary policy as risk management” to better deal with uncertainty and nonlinearities, provides an unparalleled opportunity to rethink the role of human capital in central banks. Rather...

Not the Fed Tealbook December 2022 2022-12-30 18:44

WP 2022/10 Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2022/10 Not the Fed Tealbook December 2022∗ Abstract “Not the Fed Tealbook” simulates a state-of-the-art macroeconomic analysis and streamlined monetary policy note with limited resources. This provides a simple and accessible application of the Forecasting and Policy Analysis (FPAS) Mark II framework that incorporates uncertainty, nonlinearities, and Alan Greenspan’s 2004 formulation of “monetary...

FPAS Mark II Financial-Cycle Gaps 2022-12-30 10:56

WP 2022/11 Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2022/11 FPAS Mark II Financial-Cycle Gaps Vahe Avagyan, Hayk Avetisyan and Martin Galstyan December 30,2022 Abstract All financial crises are preceded by the combination of an excessive credit expansion and asset price bubble. The second criteria was clearly established with an astronomical increase in asset prices during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. Soon after the collapse in equity prices in the initial phase of...

Getting FIT with Imperfect Policy Credibility: DYNARE/JULIA Workshops with an Application for a Small Open Economy 2022-11-30 18:04

WP 2022/07 Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2022/07 Getting FIT with Imperfect Policy Credibility: DYNARE/JULIA Workshops with an Application for a Small Open Economy Asya Kostanyan, Anahit Matinyan and Angela Papikyan∗November 30, 2022 Abstract Following the work done by Argov and others (2007), we develop a small-open-economy model with endogenous policy credibility and a policy loss function (Open ENDOCRED). The model also builds on the ENDOCRED model presented in...

Not the Fed Tealbook October 2022 2022-10-31 18:19

Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2022/06 Not the Fed Tealbook October 2022∗ Abstract “Not the Fed Tealbook” simulates a state-of-the-art macroeconomic analysis and streamlined monetary policy note with limited resources. This provides a simple and accessible application of the Forecasting and Policy Analysis (FPAS) Mark II framework that incorporates uncertainty, nonlinearities, and Alan Greenspan’s 2004 formulation of “monetary policy as a risk...

Getting FIT with Imperfect Policy Credibility 2022-10-31 12:03

Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2022/04 Getting FIT with Imperfect Policy Credibility DYNARE/JULIA Workshops with an Application for the US Economy A. Kostanyan, A. Matinyan, A. Papikyan∗October 31, 2022 Abstract The Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the need for analytical tools and frameworks that can better deal with significant uncertainty and crucial nonlinearities. This paper explores the foundational elements of such an analytical framework that are relevant for policy...

FPAS Mark II: Avoiding Dark Corners and Eliminating the Folly in Baselines and Local Approximations 2022-10-13 11:35

Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2022/03 FPAS Mark II: Avoiding Dark Corners and Eliminating the Folly in Baselines and Local Approximations David Archer, Martin Galstyan and Douglas Laxton∗October 13, 2022 Abstract The major challenge facing central banks today is the inability of existing policymaking frameworks to adequately deal with significant and increasing uncertainty. While the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), used by leading inflation-targeting...

Macroeconomic policy during COVID-19 2021-04-08 13:19

WP 21/4/08 Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 21/4/08 Macroeconomic policy during COVID-19 Vahagn Davtyan, Haykaz Igityan, Hovhannes Manukyan Monetary Policy Department April 2021 Abstract The coronavirus pandemic can already be considered as one of the major humanitarian and economic disasters happened for the last hundred years. The consequences of the crisis are numerous starting from psychological effects and ending, with significant economic recession. This paper...

Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on the Armenian Economy 2021-03-08 18:33

WP 21/3/08 Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 21/3/08 Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on the Armenian Economy Haykaz Igityan Monetary Policy Department March 2021 Abstract Whether inflation and output respond symmetrically or asymmetrically to contractionary and expansionary monetary policy shock of the same size has important policy implications. This paper shows the presence of asymmetric responses in Armenian inflation and output to positive and negative monetary...