Estimаting the new keynesiаn оutput gаp fоr Armeniа viа а bаyesiаn аpprоасh
2015-09-25 12:55
WP/15/2/08
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 15/2/08
Estimаting the new keynesiаn оutput gаp fоr Armeniа viа а bаyesiаn аpprоасh Knarik Ayvazyan September 2015
Аbstract
Аs the New Keynesiаn оutput gаp саnnоt be оbserved in prасtiсe, there is quite sоme debаte оn whаt this vаriаble асtuаlly lооks like. Rаther thаn tаking the stаndаrd аpprоасh оf using а time trend оr the HP-filter tо estimаte it, this pаper sepаrаtes...
Early warning systems for predicting currency crises in Armenia
2014-09-04 12:14
Central Bank of Armenia
Early warning systems for predicting currency crises in Armenia
Hayk Avetisyan Monetary Policy Department
Executive summary
On the brink of the global financial and economic crisis, developing countries, Armenia among them, were enjoying enormous economic progress, based on huge foreign currency inflows. Against the background of the global crisis, the termination of such flows stirred a wave of currency crises since autumn of 2008, which was also showed up in...
Equilibrium real exchange rate model of Armenia
2014-09-04 11:45
WP 08/07/01-E
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper
Equilibrium real exchange rate model of Armenia
Vahagn Grigoryan, Arpine Dallakyan Monetary Policy Department
Abstract
The equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) is one of the key indicators for assessment of the state of economic development of a country. So it is of great importance to uncover the variables that influence on the RER and to forecast RER’s future path. Like a very common technique used in the...
Short Term Forecasting System of Private Demand Components in Armenia
2014-03-08 13:06
WP/14/3/08
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 14/3/08
Short Term Forecasting System of Private Demand Components in Armenia
Narek Ghazaryan Monetary Policy Department April 2014
Abstract
In this paper a system for the short term forecasting of private consumption and private investments is described used in the CBA. Large amount of time series are used in the system to produce conditional forecasts, giving analysts the opportunity to use all the available information in...
Is Greece on the Right Track?
2012-07-05 12:33
WP08/12-01E
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY: SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSCENTRAL BANK OF ARMENIA: MONETARY POLICY DEPARTMENT
Is Greece on the Right Track?
Debt Sustainability with Stochastic Approach
Paloma Alonso García-Puente, Zeina El Khoury, Vahagn Grigoryan, Tomoyuki Yamada
5/7/2012
Abstract
The aim of our paper is to analyze the sustainability of the Greek public debt from a risk management point view. We use a VAR model that takes into account the stochastic nature of...