Survey for Financial System Participants
General outline
When carrying out monetary policy and financial stability policy, the Central Bank of Armenia conducts quarterly surveys in order to evaluate the expectations of the financial system participants with regard to the macroeconomic situation and to take such expectations into account in the process of implementing these policies.
The Central Bank of Armenia began conducting surveys in the second quarter of 2017 and, until the fourth quarter of 2023, carried them out during the last month of each quarter. No survey was conducted in the second quarter of 2020 due to the Coronavirus pandemic.
Starting from 2024, the survey periods have been aligned as much as possible with the schedule for setting interest rates for monetary policy instruments, so that the results are made ready before the kick-off meetings.
About the survey
The survey covers the main participants of the financial system of the Republic of Armenia: banks, credit organizations (COs), insurance companies (ICs), investment firms (IFs), and investment fund managers (IFMs).
The results are summarized in the form of key indicators that characterize the distribution of responses.
The summary of each survey also indicates the number of financial organizations that participated in and responded to the survey.
Participation
From the second quarter of 2017 through the fourth quarter of 2023, only resident commercial banks of the Republic of Armenia were included in the surveys. Starting from 2024 though, the surveys also cover other resident financial organizations in the Republic of Armenia.
The survey respondents are senior managers of financial organizations involved in the strategic development of the organization. The data of the survey respondents, including their contact information, are recorded in the questionnaires.
At each survey stage, respondents fill out a standardized questionnaire. When necessary, staff members of the Statistics Department conduct further interviews with respondents.
Results of the latest surveys
Survey of financial organizations in the Republic of Armenia – first quarter of 2025
Survey start: 27/01/2025
Survey end: 06/02/2025
The results of the survey of financial organizations in the Republic of Armenia are based on the responses to the questionnaires from 72 financial organizations.
Survey of financial organizations in the Republic of Armenia – fourth quarter of 2024
Survey start: 07/10/2024
Survey end: 15/10/2024
The results of the survey of financial organizations in the Republic of Armenia are based on the responses to the questionnaires from 75 financial organizations.
Survey of financial organizations in the Republic of Armenia – third quarter of 2024
Survey start: 02/08/2024
Survey end: 09/08/2024
The results of the survey of financial organizations in the Republic of Armenia are based on the responses to the questionnaires from 72 financial organizations.
Survey of financial organizations in the Republic of Armenia – second quarter of 2024
Survey start: 18/04/2024
Survey end: 25/04/2024
The results of the survey of financial organizations in the Republic of Armenia are based on the responses to the questionnaires from 80 financial organizations.
The attached questions are those for which outlier removal has been performed on the response results using the interquartile range (IQR) method with the R software package.
Question 1a: What are your expectations with regard to the following macroeconomic indicators for the next 12 quarters?
- Inflation (change in CPI relative to the same quarter of the previous year) (%)
- Refinancing rate (%)
- Economic growth (change in real GDP relative to the same period of the previous year, e.g. January-September 2024 relative to January-September 2023) (%)
- Exchange rate of the Armenian dram versus the US dollar (AMD/USD)
Question 1d: What are your expectations with regard to economic growth, real estate price changes, and unemployment in the following sectors of the economy over the next 12 quarters?*:
- Agriculture (real growth relative to the same period of the previous year) (%)
- Industry (real growth relative to the same period of the previous year) (%)
- Construction (real growth relative to the same period of the previous year) (%)
- Services (real growth relative to the same period of the previous year) (%)
- Unemployment (unemployment rate for the expected quarters) (%)
- Real estate prices (change in real estate prices relative to the same quarter of the previous year) (%)
*The 1d survey is conducted only in the fourth quarter of each year.