Hayk Avetisyan
Macroeconomics
Hayk Avetisyan assumed the role of the Director of the Macroeconomic Directorate on March 26, 2024.
Hayk Avetisyan is a member of the Executive Committee and the Financial Stability Committee at the Central Bank of Armenia. Additionally, he also serves on the Steering Committee of the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center (CCAMTAC), a collaborative initiative between the IMF, member countries, and development partners.
Hayk Avetisyan has over 15 years of professional experience at the Central Bank of Armenia, specializing in macroeconomic modeling, economic analysis, scenario-building, policy design, and monetary policy frameworks. In his current role, Mr. Avetisyan leads the efforts in monetary policy, economic research, and statistics at the CBA and oversees the CBA’s Training and Research Center in Dilijan.
Previously, Mr. Avetisyan headed the Monetary Policy Department. His tenure at CBA began in 2008 as a macroeconomist in the Monetary Policy Department. Advancing through roles in the External Economic Relations Division and the Modeling and Forecasting Division, he became head of the External Economic Relations Division in 2014. In 2020, he was appointed head of the Monetary Policy Department.
Throughout his career at the Monetary policy department Hayk Avetisyan conducted policy-relevant studies and research in areas such as international macroeconomics and finance, external vulnerabilities and financial crises, and monetary policy frameworks for developing countries. Recently, Mr. Avetisyan spearheaded a project to design a novel Monetary Policy Framework at the CBA, introducing risk-management approach as a systemic view of monetary policy under uncertainty. This new framework, called the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System Mark 2 (FPAS II), was launched in January 2024, making the CBA the first central bank globally to implement this approach.
Born in Lernavan, Spitak Region, Mr. Avetisyan graduated from the Armenian State University of Economics (ASUE) with a specialization in International Economic Relations in 2007. He furthered his studies at the AUSE, earning a PhD in Economics in 2010. Additionally, in 2020, Mr. Avetisyan completed a mid-career master’s degree in Public Administration, focusing on Economic Policy Management, from the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) at Columbia University, New York.
SPEECHES
PUBLICATIONS
Dec-2024 “Prudent Risk Management Approach to Monetary Policy, Theory & Practice of FPAS Mark II at the Central Bank of Armenia”, (Framework Book, forthcoming), edited with D. Laxton, M. Galstyan, V. Avagyan
Nov-2024 “Inflation Target in Armenia”, CBA Policy Note, with H. Igityan, A. Papikyan
Dec-2023 “Non-Tradeable Sticky Price Inflation: Developing Better Concepts for Monetary Policy Analysis”, CBA WP 2023/19, with A. Papikyan, D. Laxton, et al.
Jan-2023 “Domestic sovereign yields puzzle in 2020: falling yields amid a large fiscal shock in emerging markets“ Chapters, in: Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan (ed.), “Foreign Exchange Constraint and Developing Economies“, chapter 2, pages 28-45, Edward Elgar Publishing, with Ilin Viacheslav & Yakovlev Dmitry
Jan-2023 “FPAS Mark II: Monetary-Policy-Relevant Output Gaps”, CBA WP 2023/03, with V. Avagyan, M. Galstyan, et al.
Dec-2022 “FPAS Mark II: Financial Cycle Gaps”, CBA WP 2022/11, with V. Avagyan, M. Galstyan, et al.
Feb-2019 “Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis”, IMF WP/19/35, with A. Alichi, et al.
Apr-2018 “Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the US Economy”, IMF WP/18/152 with A. Alichi, et al.
May-2013/Oct 2009 “Early Warning Systems for Predicting Currency Crises in Armenia”, Financial Stability Report 2012, pp. 57-140., WP 08/09-01E
Jan-2012 “Assessing Current Account Sustainability in Armenia”, CBA WP 08/12-01, with A. Dallakyan, V. Grigoryan, H. Sargsyan
Jun-2010 “New Generation Currency Crisis”, The economies of Republic of Armenia and Russian Federation During World Economic Crisis: Problems and Prospects of Developments, International Conference Notes, Yerevan, pp. 220-229.
Feb-2010 “The Regression Tree of Armenian Dram Exchange Rate With Its Main Determinants”, Armenia: Finance and Economy, #1-2 (Jan-Feb), (115-116), pp. 68-70.
Mar-2010 “Global Exchange Rate Movements During The Financial Crisis”, Periodical of Armenian State University of Economics (“Banber”), 1(19), pp. 93-104.
June-2009 “The Global Financial Crisis and Depreciation Pressures in Developing Countries”, Armenia: Finance and Economy, #6-7(May-June), (107-108), pp. 12-14.