Research Agenda
Research Agenda
The Central Bank attaches great importance to research, which provides the analytical foundation needed for policy formulation and implementation. In this context, making the Central Bank’s research agenda publicly available is also important, with the aim of:
- presenting the Central Bank’s priority research areas;
- inviting collaboration with external researchers and experts interested in research questions related to central banking.
The research agenda for 2026–2027, guided by the Central Bank of Armenia’s main strategic priorities, covers the following areas:
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Monetary Policy
Developments in the global economy in recent years have created significant challenges for institutions responsible for monetary policy. The post-pandemic rise in inflation, financial market fluctuations, and geopolitical developments prompted central banks to respond in unprecedented ways. Meanwhile, new challenges are expected in the coming years, arising from growing public debt levels, risks of disruptions to international trade routes, and long-term demographic, migration, and climate changes. The Central Bank of Armenia was also affected by these developments and responded by transforming its monetary policy framework and transitioning to a framework of prudent risk management.
This new environment gives rise to new research priorities. Topics of interest to the Central Bank of Armenia for 2026–2027 include:
- How do demographic, technological, and socioeconomic developments affect the long-term structure of the economy and the macroeconomic environment?
- How is monetary policy transmitted to macroeconomic and financial developments?
- How do banks set lending rates, and what are the main determinants of this process?
- How does central bank communication affect households’ inflation expectations, and what methods can improve estimates of these expectations, including the use of unconventional data and methods?
- How do capital flows affect the buildup of financial vulnerabilities and macroeconomic dynamics, and what role can monetary policy play in managing them?
Financial Stability and Supervision
The crises of recent years have shown that financial system stability must be assessed not only in terms of capital adequacy, but also in terms of liquidity, interconnectedness, and structural features of the market. At the same time, the financial system’s long-term efficiency and resilience depend on the competitive environment, the integration of technological innovations and financial products, and the effectiveness of the regulatory framework. Under these conditions, research on market consolidation, competitive dynamics, the pricing and design of financial products, and the effects of regulation becomes increasingly important. Particular attention should also be paid to the behavioral responses of borrowers, depositors, and financial institutions to changes in interest rates, debt burdens, regulatory requirements, and macroprudential policy.
In this context, research topics of interest to the Central Bank of Armenia for 2026–2027 include:
- What supervisory mechanisms and tools should be used to ensure effective supervision of services in the financial system and monitoring of credit risk?
- How does the level of competition in the financial market affect financial stability, and what regulatory approaches can effectively achieve both objectives?
- How does the competitive environment affect the pricing and design of financial products?
- What factors affect driver behavior and the pricing mechanism in the compulsory motor third-party liability insurance system?
- How do changes in natural and climatic conditions affect banks’ lending and the quality of their loan portfolios?
- How do changes in firms’ and households’ debt burdens affect borrower behavior, lending conditions, and financial stability, and what role can regulatory and macroprudential tools play in managing these risks?
- How has banks’ behavior changed following the introduction of liquidity coverage and net stable funding requirements?
- How do the structure of the network of financial institutions and the interconnections among them affect systemic risk?
- What is the optimal level of deposit insurance coverage in terms of reducing systemic risks and ensuring a stable allocation of resources?
Financial Markets and Payment Systems
The digitalization of financial services, changes in payment behavior, and the development of new technologies are shaping new research priorities for central banks. In this context, it is important to understand how legislative and regulatory changes affect the adoption of cashless payments, which tools are most effective in encouraging long-term behavioral change, and which factors determine cash demand and payment behavior among the population. At the same time, the development of open banking, open finance, and artificial intelligence could substantially transform the financial services sector and central bank functions, creating both new opportunities and new challenges for regulation and risk management.
Research topics of interest to the Central Bank of Armenia in this area for 2026–2027 include:
- How do legislative and regulatory changes affect the adoption of cashless payments?
- How do behavioral patterns in the population’s use of cash for payments affect the dynamics of demand for banknotes as a form of cash?
- How are open banking, open finance, and artificial intelligence transforming central banking and the financial services sector?
Financial Literacy and Inclusion
Improving households’ financial literacy and deepening financial inclusion remain important priorities for the Central Bank of Armenia. In this context, it is important to understand which factors determine the adoption and use of financial services, particularly in rural communities and among financially vulnerable groups. Of particular importance are mechanisms that encourage effective use of digital financial services, including mobile banking; research on the effects of digital tools on saving behavior; and effective approaches to protection against financial fraud and to raising consumer awareness. It is also important to assess policies and tools that can support the financial reintegration of people excluded from the financial system as a result of over-indebtedness.
Research topics of interest to the Central Bank of Armenia in this area for 2026–2027 include:
- How do behavioral interventions (such as hands-on guidance, financial incentives, and other behavioral approaches) affect consumer adoption and effective use of mobile banking, as well as households’ saving behavior?
- How have the Central Bank’s regulatory changes concerning loan guarantees affected loans backed by guarantors?
- What are the main causes of the accumulation of excessive debt, and what policies can help prevent and reduce it?