Not the Fed Tealbook December 2022
2022-12-30 18:44
WP 2022/10
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2022/10
Not the Fed Tealbook December 2022∗
Abstract
“Not the Fed Tealbook” simulates a state-of-the-art macroeconomic analysis and streamlined monetary policy note with limited resources. This provides a simple and accessible application of the Forecasting and Policy Analysis (FPAS) Mark II framework that incorporates uncertainty, nonlinearities, and Alan Greenspan’s 2004 formulation of “monetary...
FPAS Mark II Financial-Cycle Gaps
2022-12-30 10:56
WP 2022/11
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2022/11
FPAS Mark II Financial-Cycle Gaps Vahe Avagyan, Hayk Avetisyan and Martin Galstyan
December 30,2022
Abstract
All financial crises are preceded by the combination of an excessive credit expansion and asset price bubble. The second criteria was clearly established with an astronomical increase in asset prices during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. Soon after the collapse in equity prices in the initial phase of...
Inflation report 2022/4 (Monetary Policy Program Q4, 2022, Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program, Q3, 2022)
2022-12-27 12:24
Executive summary
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the slowdown of global economic activity, particularly among the main partner countries of Armenia, continues. Parallel to that, a high inflationary environment persists in the main partner countries of Armenia, mainly due to still positive developments in demand. As a result of contractionary monetary policy aimed at alleviating the high inflation in the developed countries, a certain drop of prices in international commodity markets is...
Refinancing Rate Set at 10.75 percent
2022-12-13 07:41
Refinancing Rate Set at 10.75%
At the December 13, 2022 meeting, the Board of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) decided to raise the refinancing rate by 0.25 pp to 10.75%.
In November 2022, the 12-month inflation decreased to 8.8%. The 12-month core inflation reduced as well, reaching 9.9%.
Global economic activity continue slowing. However, the inflationary environment in Armenia’s main partner countries still persists driven by expanded demand and high inflation expectations....
Statistical overview (November. 2022)
2022-11-30 22:52
Statistical overview
The Statistical Overview section of the monthly CBA Bulletin of the Central Bank of Armenia includes data on monetary, external, fiscal and real sectors, and data on RA payment and settlement system and financial system indicators.
The data source of real sector (excluding core inflation) and external trade in goods is the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (http://www.armstat.am). The data source on fiscal, external sectors, monetary and financial...
Getting FIT with Imperfect Policy Credibility: DYNARE/JULIA Workshops with an Application for a Small Open Economy
2022-11-30 18:04
WP 2022/07
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2022/07
Getting FIT with Imperfect Policy Credibility: DYNARE/JULIA Workshops with an Application for a Small Open Economy
Asya Kostanyan, Anahit Matinyan and Angela Papikyan∗November 30, 2022
Abstract
Following the work done by Argov and others (2007), we develop a small-open-economy model with endogenous policy credibility and a policy loss function (Open ENDOCRED). The model also builds on the ENDOCRED model presented in...
INFORMATION On the Structure of International Reserves of the Republic of Armenia 2022 year, III quarter
2022-11-29 16:47
INFORMATION On the Structure of International Reserves of the Republic of Armenia 2022 year, III...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q4, 2021 - Q3, 2022)
2022-11-29 16:43
(2022/3) Executive summary
In the period from the 4rd quarter of 2021 to the 3rd quarter of 2022, a high inflationary environment persisted in Armenia. Both the inflationary effects transmitted from the external sector and the growth of domestic demand contributed to it. The significantly weakening impact of the pandemic on the global economy from the end of 2021 onwards, resulted in a faster-than-expected recovery in economic activity and aggregate demand. However, such growth of global...
Lists established under UNSC resolutions were amended
2022-11-17 12:28
On 17 June 2021, the Committee established pursuant to the UN Security Council resolutions 1267/1989/2253 approved amendments to the list of individuals and entities associated with ISIL (Da’esh) and...
A seminar with participation of the representatives of organizers of casino, games of chance, including online games of chance, lotteries, the Ministry of Finance and the State Revenue Committee of the RA was organized
2022-11-05 16:55
On November 4, the Financial Monitoring Center of the Central Bank of Armenia organized a seminar with participation of the representatives of organizers of casino, games of chance, including online games of chance, lotteries, the Ministry of Finance and the State Revenue Committee of the RA. In the framework of the seminar, the participants were presented the following...
Workshop on risk-based Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Terrorist Financing supervision and management of virtual assets was held
2022-11-02 19:27
On October 24-25, a workshop on risk-based Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Terrorist Financing supervision and management of virtual assets was held at the Marriott Armenia Hotel in Yerevan.
The purpose of the workshop was to present to the representatives of the Central Bank of Armenia, including the Financial Monitoring Center of the Central Bank the international best practices relating to risk-based Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Terrorist Financing supervision and management,...
Refinancing Rate Set at 10.5 percent
2022-11-01 07:39
Refinancing Rate Set at 10.5%
At the November 1, 2022 meeting, the Board of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) decided to raise the refinancing rate by 0.5 percentage points, setting it to 10.5%.
In September, 2022, the 12-month inflation rose amounting to 9.9%. The 12-month core inflation also increased, reaching 10.5%.
Slowing trends of economic activity are observed in the global economy. The central banks of advanced countries continue to significantly tighten monetary conditions. This is...
Not the Fed Tealbook October 2022
2022-10-31 18:19
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2022/06
Not the Fed Tealbook October 2022∗
Abstract
“Not the Fed Tealbook” simulates a state-of-the-art macroeconomic analysis and streamlined monetary policy note with limited resources. This provides a simple and accessible application of the Forecasting and Policy Analysis (FPAS) Mark II framework that incorporates uncertainty, nonlinearities, and Alan Greenspan’s 2004 formulation of “monetary policy as a risk...
Getting FIT with Imperfect Policy Credibility
2022-10-31 12:03
Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper 2022/04
Getting FIT with Imperfect Policy Credibility
DYNARE/JULIA Workshops with an Application for the US Economy
A. Kostanyan, A. Matinyan, A. Papikyan∗October 31, 2022
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the need for analytical tools and frameworks that can better deal with significant uncertainty and crucial nonlinearities. This paper explores the foundational elements of such an analytical framework that are relevant for policy...
Statistical overview (October. 2022)
2022-10-30 22:46
Statistical overview
The Statistical Overview section of the monthly CBA Bulletin of the Central Bank of Armenia includes data on monetary, external, fiscal and real sectors, and data on RA payment and settlement system and financial system indicators.
The data source of real sector (excluding core inflation) and external trade in goods is the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (http://www.armstat.am). The data source on fiscal, external sectors, monetary and financial...