Publications

Publications

Publications

The Board of the CBA raised the refinancing rate by 1.75 percent 2014-12-23 10:40

The Board of the CBA raised the refinancing rate by 1.75% At the December 23, 2014 meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to raise the refinancing rate by 1.75 pp to 8.50%. Inflation in November 2014 was 1.3% compared to 0.9% recorded for the same month last year, and the 12-month inflation amounted to 2.6%. In the external sector, latest developments included accelerating growth rates of the U.S. economy, which led to expectations for further increase in interest rates in the U.S.A....

Statistical overview (October. 2014) 2014-12-22 10:55

Statistical overview The “CBA Bulletin” of the Central Bank of Armenia is a monthly periodicalthat presents Monetary Overview section which contains data on monetary, external, fiscal and real sectors, and data on payment and settlement system and financial system indicators. The data source of real sector (excluding core inflation) and external trade is the National Statistical Service of Armenia (http://www.armstat.am). The data source on fiscal, external sectors (excluding...

Statistical overview (September. 2014) 2014-11-28 10:52

Inflation report 2014/4 (Monetary Policy Program Q4 2014, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q3 2014) 2014-11-20 17:08

Executive summary According to the Central Bank forecasts, in the short run the 12-month inflation rate will gradually approach the target and stabilize around it. In 2015 and the rest part of the forecast horizon, the 12-month inflation rate will stay within the confidence band of 4%+1.5 pp. In the time of uncertainties over economic developments in external and domestic sectors, the economic growth in the forecast horizon will rebound at a slow pace and will gradually approach its long-term...

The Board of the CBA left the refinancing rate unchanged 6.75 percent 2014-11-11 10:37

Interest rate left unchanged, 6.75 percent In the November 11, 2014 Meeting, the Board of the CBA decided to leave the Refinancing Rate of the CBA unchanged, 6.75 percent. There was 1.0 percent of inflation in October of 2014, compared to 0.3 percent of inflation recorded in the same month of the previous year. Approaching the lower border of the confidence band, the 12-month inflation amounted to 2.2 percent at the end of the month. In the coming months, the Board considers, the inflation...

Statistical overview (August. 2014) 2014-10-22 10:48

Financial Stability Report (2014 1st half) 2014-10-07 14:28

This Financial Stability Report presents an assessment of potential risks that could threaten the stability of financial system of the Republic of Armenia as well as the capacity of the financial system to absorb such risks. More detailed information on Armenia's macroeconomic environment and financial system analyses is available in the Central Bank's periodicals, such as Annual Report of the Central Bank, Status Report on Monetary Policy Implementation and Armenian Financial System:...

Statement of financial position as at 30 September 2014 2014-09-30 16:32

Statement of financial position as at 30 September...

INFORMATION On the Structure of International Reserves of the Republic of Armenia 2014 year, III quarter 2014-09-30 10:19

INFORMATION On the Structure of International Reserves of the Republic of Armenia 2014 year, III...

The Board of the CBA left the refinancing rate unchanged 6.75 percent 2014-09-23 10:34

The Board of the CBA left the refinancing rate unchanged 6.75% At September 23, 2014 meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to leave the refinancing rate unchanged, 6.75%. Inflation in August 2014 was 0.7% compared to 0.3% recorded for the same month last year, while the 12-month inflation has increased to some extent, making up 0.8% in late August. The Board believes that the inflationary environment will continue expanding, and in the first half of 2015 it is expected to stabilize...

Financial System of Armenia. Development, Regulation, Supervision 2013 2014-09-16 11:00

Introduction Over 2013, financial system of Armenia reported a dynamic growth trend contributing to the availability of the financial resources and services for the real sector of economy. Assets of financial system increased by around 20 percent and accounted for 77.1 percent of gross domestic product registering an 8.5 percentage point growth over previous year. Parallel to the deepening financial intermediation and in terms of increasing competition among the banks, persistent decreasing...

Statistical overview (July. 2014) 2014-09-08 10:45

Early warning systems for predicting currency crises in Armenia 2014-09-04 12:14

Central Bank of Armenia Early warning systems for predicting currency crises in Armenia Hayk Avetisyan Monetary Policy Department Executive summary On the brink of the global financial and economic crisis, developing countries, Armenia among them, were enjoying enormous economic progress, based on huge foreign currency inflows. Against the background of the global crisis, the termination of such flows stirred a wave of currency crises since autumn of 2008, which was also showed up in...

Equilibrium real exchange rate model of Armenia 2014-09-04 11:45

WP 08/07/01-E Central Bank of Armenia Working Paper Equilibrium real exchange rate model of Armenia Vahagn Grigoryan, Arpine Dallakyan Monetary Policy Department Abstract The equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) is one of the key indicators for assessment of the state of economic development of a country. So it is of great importance to uncover the variables that influence on the RER and to forecast RER’s future path. Like a very common technique used in the...

Inflation report 2014/3 (Monetary Policy Program Q3 2014, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q2 2014) 2014-08-15 16:57

Executive summary According to the Central Bank forecasts, in the short run the 12-month inflation rate will gradually increase from a relatively low level to be near the lower bound of the confidence band in the end of the year, but in the 1st quarter of 2015 it will come closer to the target and stay around in the rest part of forecast horizon. The economic growth will speed up in 2015 and stabilize around its potential in the rest part of forecast horizon. In the 2nd quarter of 2014 too,...