Inflation report 2016/3 (Monetary Policy Program Q3, 2016. Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q2, 2016)
2016-08-26 06:37
Executive summary
The economic situation in Armenia and the pace of monetary policy of the Central Bank of Armenia
The policy implemented by the Central Bank of Armenia (the CBA) in the forecast horizon is still incurring the effect of the economic shock in late 2014, and the CBA has from time to time addressed the mechanisms of such effect in its inflation reports. In the last quarter of 2014, a sharp decline in international oil prices and depreciated Russian ruble led to dramatic changes...
Inflation report 2016/2 (Monetary Policy Program, Q2, 2016. Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q1, 2016)
2016-05-27 06:10
Executive summary
Although global economic growth rates remained sluggish, some activity in the Armenian economy was observed in the first quarter of 2016 owing to expansionary policy carried out by the Government of Armenia (the Government) in 2015 and monetary conditions loosened considerably by the Central Bank of Armenia (the CBA) since the second half of the year. Consequently, the CBA has revised the 2016economic growth projection indicator upside. In the rest part of the forecast...
Inflation report 2016/1 (Monetary Policy Program Q1, 2016, Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program, Q4, 2015)
2016-02-26 05:49
Executive summary
In the time of unfavorable economic developments in the main partner countries on the Armenian economy and inexorable influence of deflationary trends in international markets of commodities and food products, the economic growth in 2016 will remain weak. The 12-month inflation rate, although low at the beginning of the year, will tend to expand. Starting from 2017, the economic growth will accelerate to gradually approach the long-term equilibrium and inflation will continue...
Inflation report 2015/4 (Monetary Policy Program Q4, 2015, Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program, Q3, 2015)
2015-11-20 13:12
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y
According to the forecasts of the Central Bank of Armenia (hereinafter “the CBA”), by the end of 2015 the 12-month inflation rate will be in the lower bound of the confidence band of 4% + 1.5 pp. In the upcoming months, it will remain at a low level, gradually approaching and stabilizing around the target within forecast horizon. Year 2015 will end with a 3.2 - 3.9% economic growth which will slow down in 2016 mainly due to expected deceleration in...
Inflation report 2015/3 (Monetary Policy Program Q3, 2015. Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q2, 2015)
2015-08-11 13:02
Executive summary
According to the forecasts of the Central Bank of Armenia (hereinafter “the CBA”), by the end of 2015 the 12-month inflation rate will be in the lower bound of the confidence band of 4% + 1.5 pp. In the rest part of forecast horizon, it will fluctuate within the confidence band and stabilize around the target at the end of forecast horizon. For 2015, economic growth is predicted to be higher compared with previous forecast, which is due to positive developments of...
Inflation report 2015/2 (Monetary Policy Program Q2, 2015, Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q1, 2015)
2015-05-21 12:48
Executive summary
According to the Central Bank forecasts, in the course of 2015 the 12-month inflation rate will be in the upper bound of the confidence band of 4%+1.5 pp; starting from 2016, it will stabilize around the target. Economic growth for 2015 is forecast to be higher relative to the previous projection, which is determined by positive developments in economic activity in the first quarter. In 2016, economic growth rates will remain the same but will speed up later, gradually...
Inflation report 2015/1 (Monetary Policy Program Q1, 2015, Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q4, 2014)
2015-02-19 12:36
Executive summary
According to the Central Bank forecasts, in the course of 2015 the 12-month inflation rate will stay mostly in the upper bound of the confidence band of 4%+1.5 pp; later the year it will approach the target and stabilize around over the rest part of the forecast horizon. In the time of uncertain economic developments in the external environment, economic growth rates will slow down in 2015 but will speed up over the rest part of forecast horizon, gradually approaching the...
Inflation report 2014/4 (Monetary Policy Program Q4 2014, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q3 2014)
2014-11-20 17:08
Executive summary
According to the Central Bank forecasts, in the short run the 12-month inflation rate will gradually approach the target and stabilize around it. In 2015 and the rest part of the forecast horizon, the 12-month inflation rate will stay within the confidence band of 4%+1.5 pp. In the time of uncertainties over economic developments in external and domestic sectors, the economic growth in the forecast horizon will rebound at a slow pace and will gradually approach its long-term...
Inflation report 2014/3 (Monetary Policy Program Q3 2014, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q2 2014)
2014-08-15 16:57
Executive summary
According to the Central Bank forecasts, in the short run the 12-month inflation rate will gradually increase from a relatively low level to be near the lower bound of the confidence band in the end of the year, but in the 1st quarter of 2015 it will come closer to the target and stay around in the rest part of forecast horizon. The economic growth will speed up in 2015 and stabilize around its potential in the rest part of forecast horizon.
In the 2nd quarter of 2014 too,...
Inflation report 2014/2 (Monetary Policy Program Q2 2014, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q1 2014)
2014-05-20 16:47
Executive summary
The Central Bank forecasts suggest the 12-month inflation will keep on reducing to the lower bound of the confidence band in Q3, 2014 but will come closer to the target in Q2, 2015 and stay around in the rest part of forecast horizon. The economic growth will speed up in 2014-2015 and stabilize around its potential in the rest part of forecast horizon.
In Q1, 2014, the economic environment remained sluggish due to the slow pace with which construction was recovering as well...
Inflation report 2014/1 (Monetary Policy Program Q1 2014, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q4 2013)
2014-02-20 16:37
Executive summary
According to the Central Bank forecasts, in the short run the 12-month inflation rate will gradually approach the target and stabilize around it. In 2015 and the rest part of the forecast horizon, the 12-month inflation rate will stay within the confidence band of 4%+1.5 pp. In the time of uncertainties over economic developments in external and domestic sectors, the economic growth in the forecast horizon will rebound at a slow pace and will gradually approach its long-term...
Inflation report 2013/4 (Monetary Policy Program Q4, 2014, Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program, Q3, 2014)
2013-11-19 19:03
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Central Bank forecasts suggest that in the course of the next 3 years the 12-month inflation would decline continuously and rest around the target while the economic growth would speed up in 2014 and stabilize around its long-term equilibrium. Yet in the 3rd quarter of 2013 the developments of the domestic economy marked slowing in economic growth rates and high inflationary environment. This was mainly determinedby reduced private and public investment primarily due to...
Inflation report 2013/3 (Monetary Policy Program Q3 2013, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q2 2013)
2013-08-13 18:50
Executive summary
The second quarter of 2013 was remarkable for high inflationary environment determined by events (heavy hails and partly postponed vegetation period) in agriculture as well as some rise in service prices that time. As a result, the 12-month inflation rate in end-June was 6.5%, above the upper bound of the confidence band. Moreover, during the quarter the 12-month inflation went an up-sloping path, from 4.2% in the previous quarter to 5.5%, which was mainly due to the rise in...
Inflation report 2013/2 (Monetary Policy Program Q2 2013, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q1 2013)
2013-05-31 18:29
Executive summary
The potential of economy further trended upward in Armenia in the first quarter of 2013, reflecting persistently strong economic activity, under which circumstance the growth is expected in the range of 7.4-7.7 percent in the first quarter of 2013. Strong growths in industry and services remain an important contribution to the strengthening of economy potential. The Central Bank intended to adjust the growth potential estimation upside. However, taking into consideration the...
Inflation report 2013/1 (Monetary Policy Program Q1 2013, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q4 2012)
2013-02-19 17:45
Executive summary
The potential of economy further trended upward in Armenia in 2012: the sustainable growth potential is an estimated 5.5 percent versus about 4.5 percent estimation of the previous period, according to the Central Bank. Main factors that contributed to the strengthening of economy potential include the share of supply-stimulating loans in total lending volumes (in the period 2009-2012 the share of these loans has grown around 12 pp and amounted to 33.3 percent in 2012) and...