Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q4, 2020 - Q3, 2021)
2021-11-23 18:11
(2021/3) Amid the ongoing global pandemic, with the new waves regularly breaking out all around the world, problems and challenges faced by the global economy and the healthcare system, as well as uncertainties about economic prospects persisted throughout the reporting period from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021. In spite of that, since the beginning of 2021, due to the widespread use of coronavirus vaccination and the avoidance of severe economic constraints have led...
Inflation report 2021/3 (Monetary Policy Program Q3, 2021, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q2, 2021)
2021-09-28 07:23
Executive summary
In the third quarter of 2021, 12-month inflation continued to rise, reaching 8.8% in August․ According to the baseline scenario of the Central Bank of Armenia, the high inflationary environment in the coming quarters will continue. Thus, in the context of higher growth of domestic demand compared to the expansion of output capacity and the expected impact of the high inflationary environment in the international commodity markets, the acceleration of inflation and inflation...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q3, 2020 - Q2, 2021)
2021-08-31 17:22
(2021/2) Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q3, 2020 - Q2,...
Inflation report 2021/2 (Monetary Policy Program Q2 2021, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q1 2021)
2021-06-28 07:13
Executive summary
In the aftermath of the devastating year full of health and economic-political challenges, in 2021 development trends of the global economy surpassed the expectations both in terms of overcoming the coronavirus pandemic due to vaccination and faster economic and aggregate demand recovery enhanced by strongly expansionary policies. These trends in the global commodity markets and in the main partner countries of Armenia have led to a significant expansion of the inflationary...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q2, 2020 - Q1, 2021)
2021-05-25 17:06
(2021/1) The period under review spans a year from April 2020 to March 2021, which has proved difficult for the healthcare system and economy in the world and Armenia. The outbreak of New Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the world in late 2019, aggravated by martial law declared in Armenia amid the hostilities in Artsakh since September 27, 2020 and the resulting economic and political uncertainties, posed serious health, social and economic problems and challenges to the world and Armenia, in...
Inflation report 2021/1 (Monetary Policy Program Q1 2021, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q4 2020)
2021-03-30 06:48
Executive summary
Amid the continuing spread of the coronavirus worldwide, the state of martial law declared in Armenia since the end of last year, and the resulting uncertainty over the economic outlook, Armenia at the beginning of 2021, continues to experience low economic activity and a weak demand environment. Meanwhile, a sizable surge in inflation and inflation expectations was observed. It is estimated that the inflationary trends were mainly due to supply factors, including...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q1, 2020 - Q4, 2020)
2021-02-25 21:28
(2020/4) The monetary policy carried out by the Central Bank of Armenia in 2020 was steered to ensuring a 4% target for the 12-month inflation in the forecast horizon. The inflationary environment remained low during the year mainly due to a weak demand which had been driven notably by consequences of COVID-19 outbreak in the world and Armenia since the beginning of the year and health and economic effects of the martial law declared in the country on September 27th. They were reflected in both...
Inflation report 2020/4 (Monetary Policy Program Q4 2020, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q3 2020)
2020-12-29 11:32
Executive summary
Armenia’s macroeconomic environment in the fourth quarter of 2020 shaped as the new wave of coronavirus pandemic broke out all over the world, including Armenia. In addition, important influence came from the martial law declared in Armenia due to the large-scale offensive unleashed by Azerbaijan on September 27th along the entire line of contact with the Artsakh Republic. These factors are estimated to have added to uncertainties about the economic outlook, which will...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q4, 2019 - Q3, 2020)
2020-11-20 21:09
(2020/3 ) During the year preceding the fourth quarter of 2020, the inflationary environment in Armenia remained low due to both demand and supply-side factors. Thus, in the course of the fourth quarter of 2019 and first quarter of 2020 the Government carried out somewhat a contractionary fiscal policy, and mainly deflationary effects were transmitted from the outside world. The low inflationary environment was also driven by diverse competition observable in a number of commodity markets...
Inflation report 2020/3 (Monetary Policy Program Q3 2020, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q2 2020)
2020-09-25 11:14
Executive summary
After the deep decline in the global and Armenian economies due to considerably accelerating spread of the new coronavirus in the second quarter of 2020, a certain reviving of economic activity is observable in the third quarter. However, the still high uncertainty about eventual overcoming of the pandemic is estimated to restrain and delay the recovery of economic activity and aggregate demand in global and domestic economies. In view of these developments, and due to a low...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q3, 2019 - Q2, 2020)
2020-08-28 20:36
(2020/2) During the year preceding the third quarter of 2020, the inflationary environment remained low in Armenia. It was mainly attributable to both weak demand and supply factors. Thus, in the second half of 2019, the Government carried out more-than-expected contractionary fiscal policy and the deflationary effects were transmitted from the outside world, which was partially mitigated by a relatively high growth in private consumption. The low inflationary environment in the second half of...
Inflation report 2020/2 (Monetary Policy Program Q2 2020, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q1 2020)
2020-06-26 10:13
Executive summary
The inflation targeting strategy of the Central Bank of Armenia highlights the importance of communicating of the Bank to the general public by publishing, inter alia, quarterly inflation reports.
The first section of the inflation report includes the Monetary Policy Program that provides main directions of the monetary policy in the forecast horizon as well as forecasts of inflation and other macroeconomic indicators. These forecasts are based on the Bank’s...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q2, 2019 - Q1, 2020)
2020-05-26 20:12
(2020/1) During the year preceding the second quarter of 2020, the inflationary environment persisted at a low level in Armenia. It was mainly attributable to more-than-expected contractionary fiscal policy carried out by the Armenian Government and the deflationary effects transmitted from the outside world. During 2019 some structural factors, such as increased competition in the commodity market and the shift in demand from non-durable consumer goods market to durable consumer goods market,...
Inflation report 2020/1 (Monetary Policy Program Q1, 2020, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q4, 2019)
2020-03-31 07:53
Executive summary
The outbreak of COVID-19 in China, the resultant coronavirus pandemic spreading rapidly around the world and the measures taken to fight it have significantly affected the macroeconomic and financial market developments both globally and in Armenia. The forecasts and program directions for the first quarter 2020 were, therefore, carried out in the time of uncertainty - even greater in terms of quality and quantity - in contrast to the previous quarters.
The Armenian economy...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q1, 2019 - Q4, 2019)
2020-02-28 22:20
(2019/4) Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q1, 2019 - Q4,...