Inflation report 2023/3 (Monetary Policy Program Q3, 2023, Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program, Q2, 2023)
2023-09-26 15:17
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y
In the third quarter of 2023 the economic activity in the world and the main partner countries to Armenia remains sluggish, and the risks of weaker economic activity have substantially increased. With such developments in the global economy as well as the contractionary monetary policy implementation in place, the overall inflation environment in the world continued to soften significantly. Nonetheless, influenced by inflationary pressures from the labor market...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q3, 2022 - Q2, 2023)
2023-08-22 11:26
(2023/2) In the period between 3rd quarter of 2022 and 2nd quarter of 2023, the inflation environment in the Republic of Armenia has eased substantially. Thus, in the second half of 2022, despite following a certain decreasing path, the overall inflation further remained elevated, primarily driven by strong aggregate demand and inflation expectations created on the account of a large-scale influx of international visitors and financial resources to Armenia in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine...
Inflation report 2023/2 (Monetary Policy Program Q2, 2023, Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program, Q1, 2023)
2023-06-27 11:01
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y In the second quarter of 2023, the economic growth rates in the main partner countries to Armenia are still sluggish, which is accompanied by continuous easing of the inflation environment. Nevertheless, in all partner countries, as inflationary pressures derived from labor markets linger, the prices of goods and services that stand out with “sticky” prices still remain high. The central banks of those countries will therefore carry on tightening...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q2, 2022 - Q1, 2023)
2023-05-30 17:31
(2023/1) Early in the period between the 2nd quarter of 2022 and the 1st quarter of 2023 the inflation environment in the Republic of Armenia has expanded due to the influence of escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict since the end of February, various sanctions imposed on Russia and many uncertainties derived from them. High inflation environment persisted up until the end of 2022, which was also driven by strong aggregate demand created on account of a large-scale influx of...
Inflation report 2023/1 (Monetary Policy Program Q1, 2023, Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program, Q4, 2022)
2023-03-27 16:36
Executive summary
In the first quarter of 2023, the economic activity remains sluggish in the world economy and, particularly, the main partner countries to Armenia. In these countries, the 12-month inflation is gradually slowing down, largely owing to the continued decrease in the food and energy prices. However, the impact of high demand and inflation expectations on the inflation still prevailing; specifically, the growth of service prices in a number of advanced economies continues to stay...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q1, 2022 - Q4, 2022)
2023-02-28 22:58
(2022/4) In the one-year period between the 1st quarter and the 4th quarter of 2022 Armenia’s inflation environment has been high, with the latter largely determined by the influence of escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict since the end of February, various sanctions imposed on Russia and many uncertainties derived from them. These factors, in the aftermath effects of the coronavirus pandemic, again led to significant supply chain disruptions that were expressed in international...
Inflation report 2022/4 (Monetary Policy Program Q4, 2022, Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program, Q3, 2022)
2022-12-27 12:24
Executive summary
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the slowdown of global economic activity, particularly among the main partner countries of Armenia, continues. Parallel to that, a high inflationary environment persists in the main partner countries of Armenia, mainly due to still positive developments in demand. As a result of contractionary monetary policy aimed at alleviating the high inflation in the developed countries, a certain drop of prices in international commodity markets is...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q4, 2021 - Q3, 2022)
2022-11-29 16:43
(2022/3) Executive summary
In the period from the 4rd quarter of 2021 to the 3rd quarter of 2022, a high inflationary environment persisted in Armenia. Both the inflationary effects transmitted from the external sector and the growth of domestic demand contributed to it. The significantly weakening impact of the pandemic on the global economy from the end of 2021 onwards, resulted in a faster-than-expected recovery in economic activity and aggregate demand. However, such growth of global...
Inflation report 2022/3 (Monetary Policy Program 3Q 2022, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program 2Q 2022)
2022-09-27 13:10
Executive summary
In the third quarter of 2022, the slowdown in global trends of economic activity continued, particularly among the main partner countries of Armenia, mostly because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the impact of various sanctions imposed on Russia. At the same time, as a result of the restraining monetary policy aimed at alleviating the high inflation environment in the partner countries, a gradual easing of the inflationary environment and a certain decrease of prices...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q3, 2021 - Q2, 2022)
2022-08-23 16:17
(2022/2) Executive summary
In the period from the 3rd quarter of 2021 to the 2nd quarter of 2022, a high inflationary environment persisted in Armenia. Both the inflationary effects transmitted from the external sector and the growth of domestic demand contributed to it. Thus, the large-scale use of vaccines in the second half of 2021 significantly mitigated the impact of the pandemic on the global economy, as a result of which a faster-than-expected recovery of economic activity and total...
Inflation report 2022/2 (Monetary Policy Program Q2, 2022, Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program, Q1, 2022)
2022-06-28 12:49
Executive summary
In the second quarter of 2022, under the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the sanctions applied to the Russian economy, and the great uncertainty derived thereof, trends of economic slowdown in the main partner countries of Armenia continue. At the same time, in international commodity markets, as well as in partner economies a continuous expansion of the inflationary environment and an increase in inflationary expectations are observed as a result of the ongoing...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q2, 2021 - Q1, 2022)
2022-05-31 15:44
(2022/1) In the period from the 2nd quarter of 2021 to the 1st quarter of 2022, a high inflationary environment persisted in Armenia. With the widespread use of coronavirus vaccines world-wide, the impact of the pandemic on the global economy has been significantly mitigated. As a result, economic activity and aggregate demand recovered faster than expected during the reporting period. At the same time, with the growth of demand, external inflationary environment has significantly expanded...
Inflation report 2022/1 (Monetary Policy Program Q1, 2022, Status report on implementation of the Monetary Policy Program, Q4, 2021)
2022-03-28 06:31
Executive summary
At the beginning of 2022, both the global economy and the Armenian economy experienced a rapid recovery of economic activity, and 12-month inflation in Armenia was declining at a faster pace than expected. The escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian military-political conflict and sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation have created unprecedented uncertainties in terms of both global and regional economic developments. Amid significant uncertainties and complex risks, the...
Status Report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program (Q1, 2021 - Q4, 2021)
2022-02-22 18:40
(2021/4) Executive summary
The reporting period passed amid the rapid spread of new waves of the pandemic, with parallel wide use of coronavirus vaccines worldwide. In this context, global economy and the health care system continued to face new challenges and uncertainties about economic outlook. However, the impact of the consecutive waves of pandemic on the global economy has had a mild, mainly due to active vaccination process and avoidance of severe economic restrictions. Subsequently,...
Inflation report 2021/4 (Monetary Policy Program Q4, 2021, Status report on Implementation of the Monetary Policy Program Q3, 2021)
2021-12-27 07:31
Executive summary
Positive developments in demand continue in the fourth quarter of 2021 amid moderate effects of the subsequent global wave of pandemic, together with the persistence of supply chain disruption and supply constraint factors. In this situation, both in the main partner countries of the Republic of Armenia and compared to the previous forecast, a higher inflationary environment has been shaped, and inflation expectations have somewhat grown.
In the fourth quarter, 12-month...